Leave a Message

Thank you for your message. We will be in touch with you shortly.

Don’t Fall for the Next Shocking Headlines About Home Prices

Don’t Fall for the Next Shocking Headlines About Home Prices

If you’re thinking of buying or selling a home, one of the biggest questions you have right now is probably: what’s happening with home prices? And it’s no surprise you don’t have the clarity you need on that topic. Part of the issue is how headlines are talking about prices.

They’re basing their negative news by comparing current stats to the last few years. But you can’t compare this year to the ‘unicorn’ years (when home prices reached record highs that were unsustainable). And as prices begin to normalize now, they’re talking about it like it’s a bad thing and making people fear what’s next. But the worst home price declines are already behind us. What we’re starting to see now is the return to more normal home price appreciation.

To help make home price trends easier to understand, let’s focus on what’s typical for the market and omit the last few years since they were anomalies. 

Let’s start by talking about seasonality in real estate. In the housing market, there are predictable ebbs and flows that happen each year. Spring is the peak homebuying season when the market is most active. That activity is typically still strong in the summer but begins to wane as the cooler months approach. Home prices follow along with seasonality because prices appreciate most when something is in high demand.

That’s why, before the abnormal years we just experienced, there was a reliable long-term home price trend. The graph below uses data from Case-Shiller to show typical monthly home price movement from 1973 through 2021 (not adjusted, so you can see the seasonality):

As the data from the last 48 years shows, at the beginning of the year, home prices grow, but not as much as they do entering the spring and summer markets. That’s because the market is less active in January and February since fewer people move in the cooler months. As the market transitions into the peak homebuying season in the spring, activity ramps up, and home prices go up a lot more in response. Then, as fall and winter approach, activity eases again. Price growth slows, but still typically appreciates.

Why This Is So Important to Understand

In the coming months, as the housing market moves further into a more predictable seasonal rhythm, you’re going to see even more headlines that either get what’s happening with home prices wrong or, at the very least, are misleading. Those headlines might use a number of price terms, like:

  • Appreciation: when prices increase.
  • Deceleration of appreciation: when prices continue to appreciate, but at a slower or more moderate pace.
  • Depreciation: when prices decrease.

They’re going to mistake the slowing home price growth (deceleration of appreciation) that’s typical of market seasonality in the fall and winter and think prices are falling (depreciation). Don’t let those headlines confuse you or spark fear. Instead, remember it’s normal to see a deceleration of appreciation, slowing home price growth, as the months go by.

Bottom Line

If you have questions about what’s happening with home prices in our local area, let’s connect.


Recent Blog Posts

The Best Time To Buy a Home This Year

A shift is underway in the housing market this season. And if you’ve been sitting on the sidelines waiting for the right moment to jump back into your homebuying searc… Read more

2025 Housing Market Forecasts: What To Expect

Looking ahead to 2025, it’s important to know what experts are projecting for the housing market. And whether you’re thinking of buying or selling a home next year, ha… Read more

You Bought It. Now Maintain It.

Congratulations on your new home! Buying a house is a significant milestone and an exciting adventure.  However, homeownership comes with responsibilities, including m… Read more

111 To Do's To Buy A Home

So you're ready to buy a home. Here are 111 possible to do's to make your dream happen. Or, scroll to the end to see how to make the process so much easier.

ChatGPT Discover Essex County NJ This Summer: Festivals, Attractions, and More!

Welcome to Essex County, New Jersey, where summer comes alive with a vibrant array of festivals, attractions, water sites, music, and so much more.

The Drawbacks of Selling Your Home Without a Realtor

Selling your home without the assistance of a realtor might seem like a viable option to save on commission fees. However, navigating the complexities of the real esta… Read more

Home Prices Aren’t Declining, But Headlines Might Make You Think They Are

If you’ve seen the news lately about home sellers slashing prices, it’s a great example of how headlines do more to terrify than clarify. Here’s what’s really happenin… Read more

What’s Next for Home Prices and Mortgage Rates?

If you’re thinking of making a move this year, there are two housing market factors that are probably on your mind: home prices and mortgage rates. You’re wondering wh… Read more

9 Must-Have Traits in a Real Estate Agent to Sell Your Home Fast and For Top Dollar

Selling your home is a significant milestone that requires careful planning and decision-making. One of the most crucial choices you’ll make is selecting the right rea… Read more

Hey, before you go!

Want to stay one step ahead of the market? Sign up to be on Dyanna's VIP mailing list to receive exclusive listings, real estate news and a lot more.